Tuesday, December 04, 2007
The Chicken Little Generation
Most climate change hysteria is a fraud.
There, now if that doesn't start active comment-box debate, I don't know what will.
Of course, I don't really mean it. I don't really believe in extreme statements on any topics. As someone who used to write (and sometimes still writes) shameless political rhetoric for a living, I have no tolerance for rhetoric and propaganda in my personal life.
Which is precisely why I roll my eyes and shake my head whenever anyone from either side of the climate change debate starts talking. I just can't help but think of that whole Y2K fraud.
Remember that one, everybody? Computers world-wide were going to explode. Civilization as we know it would break down. The food distribution system wouldn't work. Rioting. Mass starvation. All hell breaking loose. Stock up now. Buy a power generator. Build a shelter in your basement. Talk to your children now so they won't be so traumatized when the time comes.
And the arguments of the so-called experts were so convincing that accounting firms would actually refuse to sign off on audits unless companies signed a declaration saying that they had a Y2K plan.
What a farce. And now "the end is near" types (who have been with us since civilization as we know it began) have a new pony to ride and, dear gawd, they are sure riding it hard, aren't they?
I don't mean to suggest that climate change isn't happening. Frankly, the attitudes of the climate change "skeptics" infuriate me as much if not more than the attitudes of the alarmists. The "skeptics" to me represent the worst (and, in some ways, most humorous) aspects of human nature, namely greed, gluttony, self-deception, procrastination and short-sightedness.
I particularly find it hilarious that the "skeptics" invest so much time pulling down Al Gore, because he's not really an expert; he's just a lawyer/politician with an agenda. Yet many of these same "skeptics", when looking for validation, end up turning to Michael Crichton, a science fiction novelist who makes his living convincing people that things like dinosaur cloning and time travel are scientifically possible.
Of course, through all of this, I must admit that I don't have a sniff about the science behind this issue. But then neither does 99.99 % of the rest of the human race. We have to rely on the opinions of experts and, as Y2K proved, once a media frenzy gets started, experts can be just as prone to band-wagon mentality as the rest of us.
The one advantage I feel I have is that my writing work brings me into frequent contact with real-life climate scientists. I've researched and written entire "special issues" devoted to climate change, which involved interviewing dozens and dozens of ordinary working scientists - not media dandies, not corrupt corporate shills, just regular old science nerds holed up doing research. Their views, I've found, are remarkably consistent, very enlightening and surprisingly moderate.
So here it is, the Inconvenient Truth, Mentok-style:
- Climate change is definitely happening
- Partly, this is natural and can't be stopped
- Human GHG emissions play a major part, but no one knows for sure exactly to what degree
- Anyone who says he is "sure" about the causes, timing or extent of climate change is talking out his ass, because human understanding of climate systems just isn't that good (otherwise, we'd get better weather forecasts)
- Aggressive reduction of GHG emissions is a very good idea and absolutely necessary, since they're only making things worse but:
- Even if we banned the automobile and went back to living in caves, climate change wouldn't stop - partly because it's natural, partly because things have already gone too far
- This won't "kill the planet"; the planet has been through much worse. It will, however, challenge our ability to adapt
- Many of the negative effects of climate change could, in theory, be significantly mitigated by an aggressive campaign of building dams, retaining walls and water storage systems
- Very little of this boring, practical adaptation work is being done, because people are too busy running around being hysterical and predicting the end of the world
Again, I'm no scientist, so I have no basis to know whether this version of climate change science is any better or worse than others.
But the thing about this version that gives me confidence is that it says things that are certain to infuriate both the alarmists and the "skeptics". In my experience, the truth is usually in the middle, not the extremes.
Word up.
posted by Mentok @ 10:34 a.m.,
11 Comments:
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At 2:53 p.m.,
FiL said...
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So, going back to your ape theory, for the sake of self-preservation, humans should get their arses in gear, reduce greenhouse gases, and focus on other adaptive measures, right?? Sounds good to me...
Oh, but before I drive off in my new Honda Civic Hybrid (true!!), can I suggest another point? We should avoid pissing away treasure and human resources on morally and geopolitically pointless wars, so as to concentrate instead on adapting.
*Steps off soapbox, putt-putts off into the sunset* -
At 3:09 p.m.,
Mentok said...
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Well, technically, in the lingo of such things, reducing greenhouses gases is not an "adaptive measure", it's a mitigative one i.e. aimed at trying to stop or slow climate change.
My overall point is that mitigative strategies at this point are a bit like King Canute trying to hold back the tide.
...And yes, of course, the mind boggles at the sheer degree of human potential wasted on military pursuits of all descriptions.
But what can you expect from a bunch of monkeys? It could be worse, I suppose, for whatever comfort that is.
Anyway, aren't you supposed to be so busy right now? Get back 'ta work, ya slacker! ;-) -
At 3:21 p.m.,
Grumps said...
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"The people must have something good to read on Sunday."
In other words, I think the media really makes mountains out of molehills. -
At 3:55 p.m.,
FiL said...
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Ah, I'm multitasking. Or, trying to clear my head with a wee diversion...
Actually, I did understand your point on GHG action being mitigative; I shouldn't have deployed the word "other" in my first comment. That's what you get for multitasking...
Incidentally, Canute is much maligned and misconstrued in my view. One should remember that his courtiers made the claim that he could control the tides. Canute himself knew otherwise, and engineered his trip to the seaside to show his underlings the limitations of his power. -
At 10:21 p.m.,
Mentok said...
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Hey, wow, another King Canute fan! We should form a club, the King Canute Fan Club... which of course would just be a cover for a gentleman's drinking club, like the Masons.
No, seriously, the true story of King Canute is my second favourite history geek anecdote, right behind the true story of what an idiot Christopher Columbus was.
Our modern era is in much need of a new King Canute who can show us all once again that governments really are quite limited in what they can do to change the world. -
At 3:40 a.m.,
Meenakshi said...
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I am neither an Alarmist nor a skeptic but I have seen the effects of climate change at close quarters. Rise in temperature, reducing rainfall, unseasonal rains that flood crops and criple agrarian economies. We are seeing all of this take place year after year. You can be sure that unless the common man (who is uncommon) takes a stance on this issue not much will happen.
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At 8:59 a.m.,
Bathroom Hippo said...
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Man-made global warming is a bunch of bull-sh** generated by liberal wackos who want to tax the f*** out of us, or compete with us on a "level playing field" in the global market. It is an avenue to back-door socialism. Man's carbon footprint FOLLOWS temperature change, never preceding it.
Hey that show of yours Bionic Woman is getting canceled hahaha.
Happy Festivus! -
At 11:01 a.m.,
Mentok said...
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Hey, meenakshi, welcome to the party.
As I said in the post, I don't deny that climate change is happening. What I'm saying is that mitigation, while necessary, isn't going to stop the kind of short-term hardships you're talking about. Only adaptation will do that.
In my view, the environmental movement is far too gloomy about mankind's ability to adapt. For example, my part of the world (which is mainly an agrarian economy) used to be crippled by recurrent droughts. We got fed up with that and, in the late 1940s, invested a bunch into water management infrastructure.
Today, drought is a distant memory here. In 2004, we actually had a "drought" (i.e. lack of rainfall) that was WORSE than the infamous drought of the 1930s, but we barely noticed it because our water management systems were so good (e.g. building giant reservoirs to alleviate flooding during heavy rains and store water for bad years).
So, with careful planning (never our species' strong suit), climate change doesn't have to cripple agrarian economies. -
At 11:05 a.m.,
Mentok said...
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Hey Hippo,
Long time no see.
Why don't you tell us what you really think ;-)
I don't expect to convert you on this issue. Could we agree that dumping waste products into the atmosphere and water system is probably, in the long term, a bad idea?
Bionic Woman was never "my show". In fact, I disavowed it after the first episode. So I'm not surprised it's getting canceled.
Happy Festivus to you too! -
At 12:18 p.m.,
FiL said...
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Hi Hippo, nice to see you again, even though (because?) we disagree ;-)
Good luck on the finals - you must be almost there!! -
At 8:03 p.m.,
Bathroom Hippo said...
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The sky is falling.
Yeah I'll be a senior next year. So close to the end. Now all I need to complete my life is to get married, have kids, and start a blog complaining about married life.
